Model

Lifetime Performance

5/20/26 → 8/8/26 · 2746 settled bets

Edge ≥%

Odds ≥Any

Bets

2925

1089W · 1657L

Win Rate

39.7%

41.3% break-even (+142)

ROI

-2.27%

profit / wager

P&L

-137.23u

1× Kelly-sized · settled

Win Rate vs Break-even

Is the win rate clearing the bar your odds require?

Slice	Bets	Win Rate	Break-even WR	Avg Odds	ROI
Lifetime	2746	39.7%	41.3%	+142	-2.3%
OVER	1864	35.7%	36.6%	+173	-0.5%
UNDER	882	48.0%	51.4%	-106	-5.2%
MAIN	1114	48.5%	52.1%	-109	-6.8%
ALT	1604	33.0%	33.7%	+197	+1.5%

Win Rate is colored by ROI (profitable or not), not by the break-even bar. On a plus-money book the win rate usually sits below the break-even rate and you still profit — win rate counts how often you win, but the edge is in how much the wins pay. ROI is the real profitability test; break-even WR is just context.

Break-even WR is the win rate you'd need just to break even at the average odds of that slice. Green means the model is winning more often than the price requires — plus-money bets (OVER, ALT) profit well below a 50% win rate.

Cumulative P&L

Equity curve · 1× Kelly-sized

-137.23u

Daily ROI Distribution

How variable is the day-to-day return?

31/77

profitable days

-2.27%

ROI (window)

Median day

-7.6%

Avg daily ROI

-3.5%

Best day

+160.5%

5/31/26 · n=11

Worst day

-100.0%

5/28/26 · n=1

ROI by Edge Tier

If the model's predicted edge is real, higher-edge bets should ROI higher

OVER vs UNDER

Systematic side bias check: does the model perform symmetrically?

UNDER937 bets

Record

423W-459L

Win Rate

48%

-106 avg

ROI

-4.9%

P&L

-119.98u

1× Kelly

OVER1988 bets

Record

666W-1198L

Win Rate

36%

+173 avg

ROI

-0.4%

P&L

-17.25u

1× Kelly

Performance by Scan Time

Which daily scan (10am / 1pm / 4pm ET) is most profitable?

Scan (ET)	Bets	Win Rate	ROI	P&L
10am	1233	39.4%	-3.7%	-97.9u
1pm	833	41.9%	+3.3%	+61.2u
4pm	526	38.6%	-4.1%	-49.1u
7pmRetired	148	33.1%	-14.7%	-46.3u

Grouped by which daily scan placed the bet. ROI is sizing-invariant; P&L is at 1× Kelly. Reads with the window/edge/line filters above — switch to Last 7d / 30d to see whether a slot's edge is holding up.

Slice

Bets

Win Rate

Break-even WR

Avg Odds

ROI

Lifetime

2746

39.7%

41.3%

+142

-2.3%

OVER

1864

35.7%

36.6%

+173

-0.5%

UNDER

882

48.0%

51.4%

-106

-5.2%

MAIN

1114

48.5%

52.1%

-109

-6.8%

ALT

1604

33.0%

33.7%

+197

+1.5%

Scan (ET)

Bets

Win Rate

ROI

P&L

10am

1233

39.4%

-3.7%

-97.9u

1pm

833

41.9%

+3.3%

+61.2u

4pm

526

38.6%

-4.1%

-49.1u

7pmRetired

148

33.1%

-14.7%

-46.3u