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Bets
20
14W · 6L
Win Rate
70.0%
47.1% break-even (+112)
ROI
+61.19%
profit / wager
P&L
+27.56u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.54
Ks · n=15 predictions
Bias
-0.68
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
8W-3L
Win Rate
73%▲ 6pp
+124 avg
MAE
1.63▲ 0.10
P&L
+20.05u▲ 12.54u
UNDER8 bets
Record
5W-3L
Win Rate
63%
-117 avg
P&L
+4.05u
OVER12 bets
Record
9W-3L
Win Rate
75%
+135 avg
P&L
+23.51u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.1, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -205 | 12.4% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +1.84u | Fanatics |
| 8/8/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +105 | 14.6% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +2.99u | Fanatics |
| 8/8/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +230 | 15.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +5.03u | Fanatics |
| 8/8/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +484 | 12.4% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +7.27u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -150 | 7.0% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.16u | Fanatics |
| 7/5/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +146 | 8.9% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.19u | FanDuel |
| 7/5/26 | @KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +310 | 8.8% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +3.62u | FanDuel |
| 6/29/26 | PIT | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +103 | 7.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.57u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -260 | 7.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.00u | Fanatics |
| 6/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -115 | 9.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.76u | BetMGM |
| 6/7/26 | CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -129 | 10.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.88u | DraftKings |
| 5/26/26 | @SD | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -150 | 11.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.89u | BetMGM |
| 5/20/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | N/A | +100 | 19.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.82u | BetMGM |
| 5/20/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 6.5 | N/A | -225 | 14.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.04u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | TOR | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 15.4% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 8 | LOSS | -3.31u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | @MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +150 | 5.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.88u | BetMGM |
| 7/16/26 | NYM | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -148 | 5.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.43u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +185 | 9.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.49u | Bovada |
| 6/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +375 | 7.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.97u | Bovada |
| 5/20/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 4.5 | N/A | +200 | 16.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -2.42u | BetRivers |