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Bets
23
5W · 12L
Win Rate
29.4%
43.7% break-even (+129)
ROI
-29.65%
profit / wager
P&L
-9.20u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.92
Ks · n=8 predictions
Bias
+0.68
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0008 · 7 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-10L
Win Rate
17%▼ 43pp
+123 avg
MAE
2.08
P&L
-14.42u▼ 19.63u
UNDER2 bets
Record
0W-1L
Win Rate
0%
-159 avg
P&L
-1.57u
OVER21 bets
Record
5W-11L
Win Rate
31%
+135 avg
P&L
-7.63u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.0, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/26/26 | @BAL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -286 | 8.9% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.20u | BetRivers |
| 6/26/26 | @BAL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -139 | 9.8% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.68u | BetRivers |
| 6/21/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -160 | 10.2% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.66u | BetMGM |
| 6/21/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +134 | 10.1% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.37u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +290 | 9.0% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +3.51u | FanDuel |
| 8/8/26 | CIN | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -250 | 10.8% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -3.78u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | CIN | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -120 | 12.5% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.76u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | CIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +165 | 12.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.92u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | CIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +323 | 9.8% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.28u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | @COL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -185 | 6.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.81u | BetMGM |
| 7/20/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +120 | 7.1% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.30u | Fanatics |
| 7/20/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +250 | 6.0% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.84u | BetMGM |
| 7/20/26 | @COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +560 | 5.2% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.62u | FanDuel |
| 6/26/26 | @BAL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +150 | 10.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.73u | DraftKings |
| 6/26/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +310 | 9.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.24u | DraftKings |
| 6/21/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +630 | 6.6% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -0.76u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -159 | 6.0% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -1.57u | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | TOR | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -265 | 13.4% | 4.7 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +100 | 20.3% | 4.7 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +230 | 21.2% | 4.7 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +510 | 17.2% | 4.7 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1250 | 12.2% | 4.7 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/1/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -122 | 9.6% | 3.9 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | BetOnline.ag |