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Bets
37
23W · 11L
Win Rate
67.6%
44.0% break-even (+127)
ROI
+84.37%
profit / wager
P&L
+60.91u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.60
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
+0.08
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0006 · 13 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
8W-6L
Win Rate
57%▼ 35pp
+112 avg
MAE
1.10▼ 0.74
P&L
+7.14u▼ 47.72u
UNDER12 bets
Record
8W-4L
Win Rate
67%
-112 avg
P&L
+7.88u
OVER25 bets
Record
15W-7L
Win Rate
68%
+155 avg
P&L
+53.03u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.5, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 17% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
13 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | CLE | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -150 | 5.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +0.84u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | CLE | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -160 | 11.1% | 3.5 | 2–5 | 4 | WIN | +1.80u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | @TB | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +120 | 10.3% | 3.4 | 2–5 | 3 | WIN | +2.26u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | @TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -165 | 12.5% | 3.4 | 2–5 | 3 | WIN | +2.01u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -106 | 8.2% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.60u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | @TOR | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -275 | 6.4% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +0.87u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | @TOR | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -105 | 9.6% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +1.87u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +220 | 9.5% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +3.04u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | BOS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -134 | 8.2% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.44u | BetRivers |
| 7/3/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +120 | 10.7% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +2.36u | Bovada |
| 7/3/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -152 | 5.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | WIN | +0.97u | BetRivers |
| 6/28/26 | KC | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +104 | 6.7% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 2 | WIN | +1.38u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | CLE | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -134 | 19.3% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +3.36u | FanDuel |
| 6/22/26 | CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +148 | 20.5% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +5.09u | FanDuel |
| 6/22/26 | CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +310 | 19.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +8.12u | FanDuel |
| 6/12/26 | LAD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +109 | 16.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.42u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +266 | 17.4% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +6.36u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +600 | 13.4% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +9.35u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | LAD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -235 | 11.6% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.66u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1380 | 8.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +12.60u | DraftKings |
| 6/5/26 | @PHI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -190 | 11.4% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.74u | BetMGM |
| 5/25/26 | MIN | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -175 | 12.5% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.97u | BetMGM |
| 5/25/26 | MIN | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +130 | 15.7% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +3.60u | FanDuel |
| 8/8/26 | CLE | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +153 | 5.8% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.96u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +340 | 5.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.68u | Bovada |
| 8/8/26 | CLE | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +128 | 9.3% | 3.5 | 2–5 | 4 | LOSS | -1.66u | FanDuel |
| 7/28/26 | NYY | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +106 | 8.7% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 7 | LOSS | -1.70u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/17/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +480 | 6.9% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -0.83u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -113 | 6.2% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 5 | LOSS | -1.32u | FanDuel |
| 6/12/26 | LAD | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -129 | 5.4% | 3.1 | 1–5 | 7 | LOSS | -1.24u | BetRivers |
| 5/30/26 | DET | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +116 | 16.5% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.07u | FanDuel |
| 5/30/26 | DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +240 | 15.9% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.25u | FanDuel |
| 5/30/26 | DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +550 | 14.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.68u | FanDuel |
| 5/25/26 | MIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +630 | 12.0% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.39u | FanDuel |
| 6/11/26 | ATL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -126 | 8.8% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | ATL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +184 | 9.9% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +419 | 8.8% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |