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Bets
21
7W · 8L
Win Rate
46.7%
47.3% break-even (+111)
ROI
-7.92%
profit / wager
P&L
-1.83u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.37
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.83
under-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0172 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-4L
Win Rate
43%▼ 7pp
+134 avg
MAE
1.25
P&L
-2.53u▼ 3.24u
UNDER10 bets
Record
2W-6L
Win Rate
25%
-122 avg
P&L
-8.52u
OVER11 bets
Record
5W-2L
Win Rate
71%
+158 avg
P&L
+6.69u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.6, α=0.017) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/17/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +267 | 6.2% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.28u | DraftKings |
| 7/17/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +122 | 5.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.25u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | PHI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -159 | 5.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +0.91u | BetRivers |
| 6/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -250 | 6.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +0.89u | BetMGM |
| 6/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 8.1% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.51u | BetMGM |
| 6/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +175 | 8.0% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.20u | BetMGM |
| 5/30/26 | ATL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -129 | 9.1% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.62u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +106 | 20.2% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -3.92u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 5.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.34u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | @COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +567 | 5.0% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -0.59u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | PHI | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +130 | 6.3% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.12u | Bovada |
| 7/3/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -150 | 6.2% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.54u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 6.5% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -0.84u | BetMGM |
| 6/16/26 | NYM | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 8.3% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.77u | BetMGM |
| 6/10/26 | @SD | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -134 | 5.8% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.35u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @WAS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -202 | 5.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @WAS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +112 | 6.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +237 | 7.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +499 | 6.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 5/24/26 | STL | UNDER | 5.5 | ALT | -286 | 9.9% | 3.7 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 5/24/26 | STL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -121 | 14.4% | 3.7 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |