Look up a pitcher
Bets
38
6W · 32L
Win Rate
15.8%
34.9% break-even (+186)
ROI
-52.87%
profit / wager
P&L
-65.02u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.21
Ks · n=8 predictions
Bias
+2.02
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0408 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-21L
Win Rate
9%▼ 18pp
+183 avg
MAE
2.26
P&L
-59.18u▼ 53.33u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER38 bets
Record
6W-32L
Win Rate
16%
+186 avg
P&L
-65.02u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.0, α=0.041) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -148 | 12.3% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +2.06u | FanDuel |
| 7/18/26 | STL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -275 | 13.0% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | WIN | +1.78u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @SD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -260 | 15.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.18u | Fanatics |
| 7/6/26 | @SD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -114 | 21.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +4.08u | BetRivers |
| 7/6/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +210 | 26.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +8.24u | Bovada |
| 7/6/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +475 | 25.1% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +14.41u | Bovada |
| 8/8/26 | LAD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -288 | 12.9% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -5.02u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | LAD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -113 | 20.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -4.39u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +207 | 24.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -3.64u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +470 | 23.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.81u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1040 | 17.9% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.97u | DraftKings |
| 8/3/26 | SD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -150 | 13.3% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.33u | BetMGM |
| 8/3/26 | SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +146 | 16.1% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.71u | DraftKings |
| 8/3/26 | SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +320 | 16.4% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.16u | DraftKings |
| 8/3/26 | SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +710 | 14.0% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.60u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +151 | 15.2% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.53u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +340 | 15.8% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.05u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | @PIT | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 13.1% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.49u | FanDuel |
| 7/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -217 | 16.9% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -5.35u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +106 | 22.2% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -4.31u | FanDuel |
| 7/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +265 | 26.1% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -3.60u | Bovada |
| 7/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +600 | 22.8% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -2.65u | Bovada |
| 7/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1150 | 15.6% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.69u | BetRivers |
| 7/18/26 | STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -110 | 20.0% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -4.20u | BetMGM |
| 7/18/26 | STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +200 | 22.2% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.33u | BetMGM |
| 7/18/26 | STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +450 | 20.9% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.55u | FanDuel |
| 7/18/26 | STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +850 | 14.8% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.65u | BetMGM |
| 7/11/26 | @LAD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -250 | 15.4% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -5.40u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/11/26 | @LAD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -105 | 21.9% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -4.50u | BetMGM |
| 7/11/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +230 | 26.2% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -3.76u | Bovada |
| 7/11/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +525 | 24.1% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.86u | Bovada |
| 7/11/26 | @LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1000 | 17.1% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.88u | Caesars |
| 7/6/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +900 | 18.3% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -2.03u | Caesars |
| 6/30/26 | SF | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -170 | 18.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -4.89u | Fanatics |
| 6/30/26 | SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +135 | 21.7% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.78u | Fanatics |
| 6/30/26 | SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +280 | 19.7% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.68u | Fanatics |
| 6/30/26 | SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +625 | 16.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.88u | Caesars |
| 6/30/26 | SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1200 | 10.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.10u | DraftKings |