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Bets
23
8W · 13L
Win Rate
38.1%
44.4% break-even (+125)
ROI
-29.45%
profit / wager
P&L
-17.13u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.43
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
-1.30
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 29 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%▲ 4pp
-113 avg
MAE
2.14▼ 1.23
P&L
-4.16u▲ 9.64u
UNDER16 bets
Record
5W-9L
Win Rate
36%
-104 avg
P&L
-18.05u
OVER7 bets
Record
3W-4L
Win Rate
43%
+219 avg
P&L
+0.91u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.0, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/26 | STL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +120 | 24.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +5.28u | Bovada |
| 8/3/26 | STL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -150 | 14.5% | 6.0 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.42u | BetRivers |
| 6/30/26 | DET | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -120 | 19.5% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +3.58u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -200 | 6.3% | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +0.94u | Fanatics |
| 6/13/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 7.9% | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.62u | Bovada |
| 6/13/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +217 | 8.6% | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +2.72u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | BOS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +180 | 9.6% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | WIN | +2.68u | Fanatics |
| 6/7/26 | BOS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -110 | 8.3% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | WIN | +1.58u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -124 | 18.7% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 8 | LOSS | -4.19u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | @PHI | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -137 | 16.8% | 6.0 | 4–9 | 12 | LOSS | -3.97u | DraftKings |
| 7/19/26 | LAD | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +113 | 19.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 8 | LOSS | -3.69u | DraftKings |
| 7/6/26 | @TB | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +117 | 21.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -4.00u | DraftKings |
| 7/6/26 | @TB | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -150 | 21.4% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -5.34u | BetRivers |
| 6/25/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +135 | 7.6% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -1.32u | Bovada |
| 6/25/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -116 | 13.0% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -2.81u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | CIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +125 | 17.6% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 13 | LOSS | -3.16u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/19/26 | CIN | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -139 | 21.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 13 | LOSS | -5.11u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +445 | 7.5% | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | LOSS | -0.92u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | BOS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +252 | 10.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -1.53u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | BOS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +505 | 9.5% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -1.14u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | BOS | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +1020 | 7.0% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -0.77u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | ATL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +128 | 24.1% | 5.6 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/9/26 | ATL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -153 | 20.2% | 5.6 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |