Look up a pitcher
Bets
2
0W · 2L
Win Rate
0.0%
19.5% break-even (+413)
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-2.35u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.92
Ks · n=3 predictions
Bias
+2.92
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.1216 · 26 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
+413 avg
MAE
2.92
P&L
-2.35u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER2 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
+413 avg
P&L
-2.35u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.9, α=0.122) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 4
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/7/26 | NYM | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +630 | 8.8% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -1.02u | DraftKings |
| 8/7/26 | NYM | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +295 | 10.0% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -1.34u | DraftKings |