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Bets
17
7W · 8L
Win Rate
46.7%
45.2% break-even (+121)
ROI
+7.84%
profit / wager
P&L
+2.56u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.64
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.18
neutral
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0209 · 22 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-3L
Win Rate
50%▲ 6pp
-111 avg
MAE
1.79▲ 0.30
P&L
+3.27u▲ 3.97u
UNDER14 bets
Record
7W-5L
Win Rate
58%
-113 avg
P&L
+4.94u
OVER3 bets
Record
0W-3L
Win Rate
0%
+600 avg
P&L
-2.38u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.3, α=0.021) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 31% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/28/26 | CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -119 | 16.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +2.99u | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +132 | 15.1% | 6.2 | 3–9 | 6 | WIN | +3.51u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/21/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -156 | 10.9% | 6.2 | 3–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.79u | DraftKings |
| 7/8/26 | PHI | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +116 | 9.2% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 2 | WIN | +1.99u | BetRivers |
| 7/8/26 | PHI | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -145 | 10.5% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 2 | WIN | +1.78u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -125 | 13.4% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +2.41u | BetMGM |
| 6/21/26 | @NYY | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -135 | 10.8% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.89u | Bovada |
| 8/8/26 | @WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +120 | 6.9% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.26u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +110 | 9.4% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -1.79u | DraftKings |
| 8/2/26 | PIT | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -175 | 7.1% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -1.96u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | @PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +135 | 17.2% | 6.1 | 3–9 | 10 | LOSS | -3.00u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | @PIT | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -145 | 13.9% | 6.1 | 3–9 | 10 | LOSS | -3.40u | Bovada |
| 6/9/26 | @SD | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +325 | 6.2% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 7 | LOSS | -0.81u | Bovada |
| 6/9/26 | @SD | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +700 | 8.5% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 7 | LOSS | -0.97u | Bovada |
| 6/9/26 | @SD | OVER | 11.5 | ALT | +1360 | 5.6% | 7.5 | 5–11 | 7 | LOSS | -0.61u | DraftKings |
| 7/27/26 | CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -137 | 6.1% | 5.8 | 3–8 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 6/1/26 | KC | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +125 | 5.6% | 6.8 | 4–10 | — | — | — | Bovada |