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Bets
14
6W · 7L
Win Rate
46.2%
51.0% break-even (-104)
ROI
-17.61%
profit / wager
P&L
-9.15u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.88
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.89
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-4L
Win Rate
43%▼ 7pp
-112 avg
MAE
2.12▲ 0.56
P&L
-6.12u▼ 3.09u
UNDER14 bets
Record
6W-7L
Win Rate
46%
-104 avg
P&L
-9.15u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.2, α=0.000) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 7.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | @NYY | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -148 | 26.9% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +4.50u | DraftKings |
| 7/17/26 | TEX | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +117 | 16.4% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.55u | BetRivers |
| 7/17/26 | TEX | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -136 | 18.6% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.23u | DraftKings |
| 7/4/26 | NYM | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +100 | 20.9% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | WIN | +4.17u | BetMGM |
| 6/20/26 | MIL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -124 | 12.1% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +2.18u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -112 | 10.4% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.98u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | @NYY | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +110 | 29.0% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | LOSS | -5.54u | BetMGM |
| 7/29/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -122 | 17.8% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -3.94u | FanDuel |
| 7/23/26 | SD | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +118 | 18.0% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 11 | LOSS | -3.33u | BetRivers |
| 7/23/26 | SD | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -140 | 19.1% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 11 | LOSS | -4.59u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @SF | UNDER | 6.5 | ALT | +215 | 25.3% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -3.71u | BetRivers |
| 6/28/26 | @SF | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +124 | 10.1% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 10 | LOSS | -1.82u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @SF | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -143 | 24.0% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -5.83u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -141 | 14.3% | 6.2 | 4–9 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |