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Bets
20
7W · 12L
Win Rate
36.8%
42.0% break-even (+138)
ROI
-14.07%
profit / wager
P&L
-5.60u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.87
Ks · n=10 predictions
Bias
-0.62
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0007 · 10 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-3L
Win Rate
50%▲ 32pp
+111 avg
MAE
1.45▼ 0.84
P&L
-0.38u▲ 10.77u
UNDER12 bets
Record
4W-7L
Win Rate
36%
+109 avg
P&L
-2.79u
OVER8 bets
Record
3W-5L
Win Rate
38%
+195 avg
P&L
-2.81u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.7, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +110 | 9.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.01u | BetMGM |
| 7/26/26 | ATH | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -170 | 7.0% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.11u | Fanatics |
| 7/26/26 | ATH | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +120 | 5.5% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.21u | BetRivers |
| 6/19/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -145 | 14.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.52u | Fanatics |
| 6/13/26 | STL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +117 | 9.9% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +2.14u | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -115 | 23.6% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 1 | WIN | +4.42u | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 6.5 | N/A | -265 | 11.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | WIN | +1.51u | BetRivers |
| 7/26/26 | ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +275 | 6.4% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.87u | Bovada |
| 7/8/26 | CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +113 | 10.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.92u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -119 | 8.8% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 10 | LOSS | -1.92u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +168 | 18.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.95u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +370 | 16.2% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.05u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +700 | 10.0% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.14u | Bovada |
| 6/19/26 | @ARI | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1500 | 5.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.63u | Fanatics |
| 6/19/26 | @ARI | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +123 | 10.9% | 3.4 | 2–5 | 4 | LOSS | -1.98u | BetRivers |
| 6/7/26 | KC | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +115 | 17.9% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 7 | LOSS | -3.35u | BetMGM |
| 6/2/26 | CWS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +116 | 5.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -1.00u | FanDuel |
| 5/27/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 4.5 | ALT | +140 | 10.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.79u | BetRivers |
| 5/27/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 3.5 | ALT | +285 | 6.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.91u | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -122 | 10.6% | 4.8 | 3–7 | — | — | — | FanDuel |