Look up a pitcher
Bets
4
2W · 1L
Win Rate
66.7%
55.2% break-even (-123)
ROI
+48.56%
profit / wager
P&L
+3.79u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.04
Ks · n=2 predictions
Bias
+0.17
neutral
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0601 · 49 starts
Recent form · Last 3 starts
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
-123 avg
MAE
1.04
P&L
+3.79u
UNDER4 bets
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
-123 avg
P&L
+3.79u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.2, α=0.060) · 80% range 1-5 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/26 | TOR | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +122 | 15.4% | 3.2 | 1–5 | 2 | WIN | +3.42u | DraftKings |
| 8/3/26 | TOR | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -185 | 12.2% | 3.2 | 1–5 | 2 | WIN | +1.88u | BetMGM |
| 7/12/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -125 | 6.7% | 3.1 | 1–5 | 4 | LOSS | -1.52u | BetMGM |
| 8/9/26 | @SD | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -120 | 6.0% | 3.2 | 1–5 | — | — | — | BetMGM |