Look up a pitcher
Bets
27
7W · 16L
Win Rate
30.4%
37.7% break-even (+165)
ROI
-47.20%
profit / wager
P&L
-20.71u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.59
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+2.21
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 49 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-12L
Win Rate
14%▼ 41pp
+190 avg
MAE
2.16▼ 0.75
P&L
-10.60u▼ 0.50u
UNDER1 bet
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-130 avg
P&L
+1.16u
OVER26 bets
Record
6W-16L
Win Rate
27%
+172 avg
P&L
-21.87u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.3, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/18/26 | @TOR | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -132 | 10.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.79u | FanDuel |
| 7/18/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +190 | 13.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.81u | FanDuel |
| 6/27/26 | KC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -130 | 6.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.16u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | @ATL/CWS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -125 | 5.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.02u | Fanatics |
| 6/10/26 | @ATL/CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +165 | 5.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.47u | Fanatics |
| 5/22/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | N/A | +310 | 6.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.66u | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | N/A | -138 | 5.8% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +0.99u | FanDuel |
| 8/4/26 | @BOS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -200 | 6.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -2.08u | BetMGM |
| 8/4/26 | @BOS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +110 | 7.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.49u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | @BOS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +247 | 8.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.20u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | @BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +550 | 7.2% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -0.85u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | HOU | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +115 | 6.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.19u | Fanatics |
| 7/24/26 | HOU | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +255 | 6.7% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.93u | FanDuel |
| 7/24/26 | HOU | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +569 | 5.6% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.66u | DraftKings |
| 7/18/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +430 | 11.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.37u | FanDuel |
| 7/18/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +790 | 5.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.63u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -125 | 10.8% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 0 | LOSS | -2.44u | Bovada |
| 7/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +176 | 12.7% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 0 | LOSS | -1.99u | FanDuel |
| 7/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +360 | 10.9% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 0 | LOSS | -1.39u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @DET | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -170 | 23.9% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 4 | LOSS | -6.46u | Fanatics |
| 6/21/26 | @DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +126 | 31.2% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 4 | LOSS | -5.59u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +275 | 34.3% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 4 | LOSS | -4.67u | Bovada |
| 6/16/26 | @NYY | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +475 | 5.6% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.68u | Bovada |
| 8/9/26 | CLE | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -120 | 18.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | CLE | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +195 | 21.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +440 | 18.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1000 | 13.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |