Look up a pitcher
Bets
30
8W · 16L
Win Rate
33.3%
38.2% break-even (+162)
ROI
-5.96%
profit / wager
P&L
-2.09u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.97
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
+1.46
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0325 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-7L
Win Rate
30%▼ 8pp
+172 avg
MAE
1.90▼ 0.27
P&L
-1.43u▼ 1.78u
UNDER8 bets
Record
4W-2L
Win Rate
67%
-100 avg
P&L
+6.81u
OVER22 bets
Record
4W-14L
Win Rate
22%
+192 avg
P&L
-8.90u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.4, α=0.032) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 4
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/29/26 | @PIT | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +105 | 6.6% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 2 | WIN | +1.34u | BetMGM |
| 7/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -190 | 5.7% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +0.87u | Bovada |
| 7/19/26 | STL | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +125 | 17.8% | 3.1 | 1–5 | 3 | WIN | +4.00u | Fanatics |
| 7/10/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +145 | 5.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.31u | BetMGM |
| 6/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -140 | 8.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.48u | BetMGM |
| 6/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +150 | 8.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.14u | BetMGM |
| 6/17/26 | LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -142 | 14.3% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.44u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | @ARI/CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -134 | 13.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +2.32u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +152 | 5.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.98u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/4/26 | SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +320 | 5.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.73u | Fanatics |
| 7/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +121 | 8.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.57u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +270 | 10.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.37u | Bovada |
| 7/24/26 | @WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +600 | 9.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.06u | Bovada |
| 7/19/26 | STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +165 | 6.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.04u | Bovada |
| 7/19/26 | STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +375 | 7.1% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.89u | Bovada |
| 7/5/26 | MIL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -127 | 7.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.78u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/5/26 | MIL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +155 | 6.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.99u | Fanatics |
| 7/5/26 | MIL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +346 | 6.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.85u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | MIL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +790 | 5.7% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.64u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +325 | 8.3% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.09u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +660 | 5.9% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.68u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @STL | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +120 | 6.3% | 3.6 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.16u | BetMGM |
| 6/17/26 | LAA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +118 | 11.6% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -2.14u | FanDuel |
| 6/1/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +162 | 6.2% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.01u | FanDuel |
| 8/9/26 | LAD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -138 | 7.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | FanDuel |
| 8/9/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +165 | 8.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +375 | 9.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 8/9/26 | LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +770 | 6.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | LAD | UNDER | 2.5 | ALT | +255 | 7.0% | 3.4 | 1–5 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | LAD | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +118 | 11.0% | 3.4 | 1–5 | — | — | — | DraftKings |