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Bets
12
3W · 8L
Win Rate
27.3%
45.5% break-even (+120)
ROI
-15.43%
profit / wager
P&L
-4.07u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.47
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
+0.01
neutral
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0658 · 45 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%▼ 13pp
-104 avg
MAE
1.41▼ 0.37
P&L
-3.37u▼ 2.68u
UNDER10 bets
Record
3W-6L
Win Rate
33%
-107 avg
P&L
-2.65u
OVER2 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
+449 avg
P&L
-1.42u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.3, α=0.066) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
7 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22/26 | CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +100 | 27.3% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +5.46u | Bovada |
| 6/14/26 | @WAS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -152 | 11.8% | 3.5 | 1–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.96u | BetRivers |
| 6/8/26 | @BAL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +118 | 16.0% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +3.49u | FanDuel |
| 8/4/26 | DET | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +129 | 10.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.84u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | DET | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -158 | 8.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.10u | FanDuel |
| 7/5/26 | TOR | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -122 | 15.4% | 3.6 | 1–6 | 5 | LOSS | -3.43u | FanDuel |
| 6/28/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +120 | 8.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.47u | BetRivers |
| 6/20/26 | BOS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -139 | 12.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.92u | DraftKings |
| 6/20/26 | BOS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +123 | 10.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.81u | BetRivers |
| 6/8/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +325 | 5.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.73u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @BAL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +675 | 6.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.68u | Bovada |
| 8/9/26 | TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -127 | 12.4% | 3.7 | 2–6 | — | — | — | BetRivers |