Look up a pitcher
Bets
4
3W · 1L
Win Rate
75.0%
55.8% break-even (-126)
ROI
+3.28%
profit / wager
P&L
+0.28u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.43
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
+0.66
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0004 · 34 starts
Recent form · Last 3 starts
Record
3W-1L
Win Rate
75%
-126 avg
MAE
1.36
P&L
+0.28u
UNDER4 bets
Record
3W-1L
Win Rate
75%
-126 avg
P&L
+0.28u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.7, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 16% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/6/26 | COL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -125 | 8.9% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +1.60u | BetRivers |
| 6/29/26 | @ATH | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +126 | 5.6% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.28u | FanDuel |
| 6/29/26 | @ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -167 | 7.1% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.14u | BetRivers |
| 6/9/26 | @PIT | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -155 | 14.6% | 3.4 | 2–5 | 5 | LOSS | -3.73u | DraftKings |