Look up a pitcher
Bets
25
6W · 12L
Win Rate
33.3%
41.4% break-even (+141)
ROI
-5.30%
profit / wager
P&L
-2.11u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
3.20
Ks · n=16 predictions
Bias
-0.13
neutral
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0310 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-5L
Win Rate
29%▲ 16pp
-117 avg
MAE
4.07▲ 1.35
P&L
-5.96u▼ 1.45u
UNDER14 bets
Record
6W-6L
Win Rate
50%
-110 avg
P&L
+2.90u
OVER11 bets
Record
0W-6L
Win Rate
0%
+414 avg
P&L
-5.01u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.7, α=0.031) · 80% range 4-10 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +110 | 23.0% | 6.2 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +4.83u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -147 | 21.6% | 6.2 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +3.63u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | SEA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +110 | 9.6% | 6.2 | 3–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.02u | BetOnline.ag |
| 5/27/26 | WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | ALT | +215 | 13.1% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 4 | WIN | +4.14u | BetRivers |
| 5/27/26 | WAS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +107 | 13.1% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 4 | WIN | +2.71u | BetRivers |
| 5/27/26 | WAS | UNDER | 7.5 | ALT | -190 | 9.9% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 4 | WIN | +1.51u | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | ARI | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +124 | 11.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -2.13u | FanDuel |
| 8/2/26 | ARI | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -143 | 11.0% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -2.68u | DraftKings |
| 7/23/26 | MIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +122 | 17.1% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 11 | LOSS | -3.11u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/23/26 | MIN | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -159 | 13.5% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 11 | LOSS | -3.50u | DraftKings |
| 7/18/26 | PIT | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -152 | 11.8% | 6.1 | 3–9 | 11 | LOSS | -2.98u | BetRivers |
| 7/9/26 | @MIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -139 | 6.4% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 11 | LOSS | -1.53u | BetRivers |
| 6/17/26 | @MIL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +185 | 5.3% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 4 | LOSS | -0.82u | Bovada |
| 6/17/26 | @MIL | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +375 | 7.0% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 4 | LOSS | -0.88u | Bovada |
| 6/17/26 | @MIL | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +775 | 6.8% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 4 | LOSS | -0.77u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | NYY | OVER | 10.5 | ALT | +1120 | 6.2% | 7.4 | 4–11 | 5 | LOSS | -0.67u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | NYY | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +283 | 7.1% | 7.4 | 4–11 | 5 | LOSS | -0.96u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | NYY | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +576 | 7.7% | 7.4 | 4–11 | 5 | LOSS | -0.90u | DraftKings |
| 7/17/26 | PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +120 | 12.1% | 6.2 | 3–9 | — | VOID | — | Bovada |
| 7/17/26 | PIT | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -154 | 10.3% | 6.2 | 3–9 | — | VOID | — | FanDuel |
| 6/14/26 | DET | OVER | 10.5 | ALT | +1060 | 9.9% | 7.9 | 5–11 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | DET | OVER | 6.5 | MAIN | -132 | 8.9% | 7.9 | 5–11 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 6/14/26 | DET | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +145 | 11.5% | 7.9 | 5–11 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | DET | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +277 | 12.7% | 7.9 | 5–11 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | DET | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +550 | 12.3% | 7.9 | 5–11 | — | VOID | — | Bovada |