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Bets
15
9W · 6L
Win Rate
60.0%
43.6% break-even (+130)
ROI
+36.67%
profit / wager
P&L
+10.79u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.77
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
+0.51
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0532 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-5L
Win Rate
50%▼ 30pp
+120 avg
MAE
2.45▲ 1.26
P&L
+2.91u▼ 4.98u
UNDER5 bets
Record
4W-1L
Win Rate
80%
-106 avg
P&L
+7.09u
OVER10 bets
Record
5W-5L
Win Rate
50%
+152 avg
P&L
+3.70u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.7, α=0.053) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | MIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -113 | 6.8% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | WIN | +1.28u | FanDuel |
| 7/20/26 | CIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +111 | 15.3% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 6 | WIN | +3.22u | DraftKings |
| 7/8/26 | @MIA | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 9.6% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +2.20u | BetMGM |
| 7/8/26 | @MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +285 | 12.7% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +4.87u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | @MIA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -149 | 8.2% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.38u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/17/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +115 | 12.5% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.69u | BetMGM |
| 6/17/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -144 | 14.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.39u | FanDuel |
| 6/10/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +265 | 5.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 10 | WIN | +1.83u | FanDuel |
| 6/10/26 | @BAL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +550 | 5.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 10 | WIN | +3.47u | FanDuel |
| 8/8/26 | TB | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -295 | 6.4% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 2 | LOSS | -2.53u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -135 | 10.0% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 2 | LOSS | -2.34u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +160 | 13.8% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 2 | LOSS | -2.24u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +335 | 14.9% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 2 | LOSS | -1.93u | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | @TEX | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +225 | 6.9% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.00u | Bovada |
| 6/29/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -104 | 12.2% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 7 | LOSS | -2.49u | DraftKings |