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Bets
14
5W · 9L
Win Rate
35.7%
53.1% break-even (-113)
ROI
-40.14%
profit / wager
P&L
-16.97u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.37
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
-0.88
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%▼ 9pp
-118 avg
MAE
3.80▲ 2.41
P&L
-10.24u▲ 0.33u
UNDER14 bets
Record
5W-9L
Win Rate
36%
-113 avg
P&L
-16.97u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.7, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
11 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -130 | 17.3% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +3.06u | Bovada |
| 6/27/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -149 | 11.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.90u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/22/26 | @DET | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +100 | 13.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.73u | BetMGM |
| 6/9/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +130 | 10.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.33u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -162 | 9.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.51u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | ATL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 9.0% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -1.75u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -128 | 17.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -4.02u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/22/26 | PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -108 | 22.9% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 11 | LOSS | -4.76u | BetRivers |
| 7/17/26 | LAD | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -134 | 11.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -2.77u | BetRivers |
| 7/8/26 | @TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +111 | 16.3% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -3.10u | DraftKings |
| 7/8/26 | @TB | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -184 | 14.7% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -4.18u | FanDuel |
| 7/3/26 | MIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -115 | 6.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -1.42u | BetRivers |
| 6/27/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +130 | 10.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.77u | BetMGM |
| 6/16/26 | CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +104 | 24.0% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -4.72u | DraftKings |