Look up a pitcher
Bets
35
6W · 22L
Win Rate
21.4%
33.5% break-even (+199)
ROI
-54.47%
profit / wager
P&L
-24.27u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.63
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
+0.78
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0390 · 42 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
4W-9L
Win Rate
31%▲ 17pp
+168 avg
MAE
0.89▼ 0.87
P&L
-6.61u▲ 11.06u
UNDER1 bet
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-101 avg
P&L
+1.20u
OVER34 bets
Record
5W-22L
Win Rate
19%
+205 avg
P&L
-25.47u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.3, α=0.039) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 29% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | MIA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +100 | 5.3% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.07u | Bovada |
| 7/30/26 | WAS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -165 | 10.0% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.60u | BetMGM |
| 7/8/26 | @PIT | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -238 | 5.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +0.80u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/8/26 | @PIT | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -106 | 8.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.70u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/3/26 | NYM | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -101 | 6.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 2 | WIN | +1.20u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/22/26 | @SD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -154 | 12.6% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +2.08u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/4/26 | MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +215 | 7.0% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.03u | Bovada |
| 8/4/26 | MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +450 | 6.9% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.84u | Bovada |
| 7/30/26 | WAS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 10.8% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.95u | BetMGM |
| 7/30/26 | WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +270 | 11.7% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.61u | DraftKings |
| 7/30/26 | WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +600 | 10.7% | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.25u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | @BAL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +155 | 7.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.20u | BetRivers |
| 7/24/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 8.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.06u | DraftKings |
| 7/8/26 | @PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +200 | 10.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.57u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | @PIT | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +420 | 10.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.26u | FanDuel |
| 6/22/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +140 | 14.8% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.53u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +300 | 14.8% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.97u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +610 | 11.7% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.36u | FanDuel |
| 6/9/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -108 | 9.9% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.06u | BetRivers |
| 6/9/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +195 | 11.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.71u | Bovada |
| 6/9/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +410 | 10.7% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.33u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @CWS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +900 | 8.7% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -0.97u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @CWS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -235 | 7.4% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.49u | Fanatics |
| 6/9/26 | @CWS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1800 | 6.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -0.64u | DraftKings |
| 6/3/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +194 | 14.4% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.19u | DraftKings |
| 6/3/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +414 | 13.8% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.72u | DraftKings |
| 6/3/26 | TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +870 | 10.8% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.21u | DraftKings |
| 6/3/26 | TOR | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1800 | 7.2% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.76u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +145 | 8.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 8/9/26 | @NYY | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +300 | 9.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 6/16/26 | SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -215 | 8.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Fanatics |
| 6/16/26 | SF | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +108 | 12.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 6/16/26 | SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +235 | 13.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 6/16/26 | SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +475 | 11.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 6/16/26 | SF | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1020 | 8.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |