Look up a pitcher
Bets
15
6W · 7L
Win Rate
46.2%
47.0% break-even (+113)
ROI
-0.89%
profit / wager
P&L
-0.21u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.21
Ks · n=8 predictions
Bias
+1.72
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 49 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-6L
Win Rate
33%▼ 42pp
+123 avg
MAE
1.85
P&L
-4.05u▼ 7.89u
UNDER11 bets
Record
6W-3L
Win Rate
67%
-109 avg
P&L
+4.06u
OVER4 bets
Record
0W-4L
Win Rate
0%
+182 avg
P&L
-4.27u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.6, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 18% · green = OVER 5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
7 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/18/26 | DET | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +130 | 8.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.94u | Bovada |
| 7/18/26 | DET | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -155 | 8.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.45u | BetMGM |
| 7/10/26 | @MIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -111 | 8.2% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 0 | WIN | +1.57u | FanDuel |
| 6/14/26 | TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +124 | 7.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 1 | WIN | +1.66u | FanDuel |
| 6/14/26 | TB | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -155 | 9.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 1 | WIN | +1.47u | BetMGM |
| 6/2/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 15.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +3.61u | Bovada |
| 8/4/26 | @BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -150 | 11.9% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.98u | BetMGM |
| 8/4/26 | @BAL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +123 | 9.7% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.75u | BetRivers |
| 7/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +138 | 7.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.23u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +310 | 7.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.92u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -168 | 5.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.53u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +690 | 5.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.60u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | HOU | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 12.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.91u | FanDuel |
| 8/9/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +140 | 11.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetMGM |
| 8/9/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -146 | 11.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | FanDuel |