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Bets
14
3W · 10L
Win Rate
23.1%
45.6% break-even (+119)
ROI
-50.18%
profit / wager
P&L
-15.13u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.83
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-1.08
under-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0373 · 11 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%▼ 20pp
-110 avg
MAE
2.25▲ 0.36
P&L
-9.60u▼ 6.94u
UNDER10 bets
Record
2W-7L
Win Rate
22%
-103 avg
P&L
-14.32u
OVER4 bets
Record
1W-3L
Win Rate
25%
+192 avg
P&L
-0.81u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.9, α=0.037) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/11/26 | SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +103 | 16.9% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +3.43u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -121 | 10.0% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.82u | BetRivers |
| 6/7/26 | @MIA | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -105 | 10.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.07u | Fliff |
| 8/2/26 | CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +128 | 20.3% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -3.61u | FanDuel |
| 8/2/26 | CWS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -150 | 17.5% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -4.37u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | TEX | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -122 | 8.7% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 10 | LOSS | -1.93u | FanDuel |
| 7/6/26 | NYY | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -117 | 14.3% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 10 | LOSS | -3.11u | DraftKings |
| 6/30/26 | @KC | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 7.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.41u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | KC | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +124 | 12.1% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.18u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | WAS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +100 | 14.7% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -2.95u | FanDuel |
| 5/26/26 | @BAL | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +138 | 8.5% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.47u | DraftKings |
| 5/26/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +260 | 5.8% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.81u | DraftKings |
| 5/26/26 | @BAL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +530 | 5.0% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.60u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -120 | 7.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetMGM |