Look up a pitcher
Bets
3
1W · 1L
Win Rate
50.0%
48.2% break-even (+108)
ROI
-2.75%
profit / wager
P&L
-0.11u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
3.42
Ks · n=6 predictions
Bias
-2.16
under-predicting
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 3 starts
Record
1W-1L
Win Rate
50%
+108 avg
MAE
3.45
P&L
-0.11u
UNDER2 bets
Record
1W-1L
Win Rate
50%
+108 avg
P&L
-0.11u
OVER1 bet
Record
0W-0L
Win Rate
0%
0 avg
P&L
+0.00u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/12/26 | SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +118 | 9.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | WIN | +2.13u | DraftKings |
| 7/7/26 | NYY | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -102 | 11.1% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 12 | LOSS | -2.25u | FanDuel |
| 7/23/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +185 | 5.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | BetMGM |