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Bets
12
5W · 6L
Win Rate
45.5%
50.4% break-even (-101)
ROI
-2.97%
profit / wager
P&L
-1.68u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.80
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
-2.73
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 28 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-4L
Win Rate
33%▼ 27pp
+102 avg
MAE
3.20▲ 1.17
P&L
-10.96u▼ 20.25u
UNDER12 bets
Record
5W-6L
Win Rate
45%
-101 avg
P&L
-1.68u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.8, α=0.000) · 80% range 4-10 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 8.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/20/26 | NYM | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | +121 | 28.1% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 6 | WIN | +6.22u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | NYM | UNDER | 9.5 | MAIN | -125 | 28.1% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 6 | WIN | +5.05u | BetMGM |
| 6/26/26 | CHC | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | +116 | 33.2% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +7.16u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @ATL | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -116 | 25.4% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +4.72u | DraftKings |
| 5/31/26 | @HOU | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | +101 | 21.2% | 7.1 | 4–10 | 8 | WIN | +4.26u | DraftKings |
| 8/2/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | +135 | 35.4% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -6.17u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 9.5 | MAIN | -121 | 31.4% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -6.94u | DraftKings |
| 7/26/26 | COL | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -110 | 24.0% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 12 | LOSS | -5.03u | BetMGM |
| 7/7/26 | @STL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +115 | 21.9% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 11 | LOSS | -4.09u | Bovada |
| 7/2/26 | CIN | UNDER | 9.5 | MAIN | -121 | 24.6% | 7.4 | 5–10 | 10 | LOSS | -5.43u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | PHI | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -110 | 6.9% | 8.0 | 5–11 | 15 | LOSS | -1.44u | Bovada |
| 8/9/26 | MIN | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | +117 | 39.2% | 6.0 | 4–9 | — | — | — | DraftKings |