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Bets
17
9W · 8L
Win Rate
52.9%
49.0% break-even (+104)
ROI
+11.68%
profit / wager
P&L
+4.41u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.83
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-0.04
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
4W-1L
Win Rate
80%▲ 58pp
-113 avg
MAE
1.87▲ 0.12
P&L
+5.48u▲ 14.35u
UNDER12 bets
Record
8W-4L
Win Rate
67%
-109 avg
P&L
+8.02u
OVER5 bets
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%
+140 avg
P&L
-3.60u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.4, α=0.000) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 31% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
11 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | @HOU | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -105 | 5.3% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | WIN | +1.04u | BetMGM |
| 7/26/26 | SEA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -150 | 10.3% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +1.72u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | CWS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +115 | 11.6% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.50u | Bovada |
| 7/7/26 | LAA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +100 | 19.5% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +3.91u | BetMGM |
| 6/7/26 | CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -140 | 5.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +0.94u | Fanatics |
| 6/7/26 | CLE | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -125 | 14.1% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.53u | Caesars |
| 5/22/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | N/A | +180 | 12.4% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 3 | WIN | +3.48u | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 8.5 | N/A | -220 | 8.4% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 3 | WIN | +1.22u | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 7.5 | N/A | +106 | 15.0% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 3 | WIN | +3.10u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | BAL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -135 | 15.7% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -3.69u | BetMGM |
| 6/30/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +114 | 8.5% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -1.59u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +106 | 12.5% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 8 | LOSS | -2.44u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | SD | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -114 | 10.2% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -2.17u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/13/26 | @BOS | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -160 | 8.1% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -2.10u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | @BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +125 | 9.7% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -1.75u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | @BOS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +240 | 9.4% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -1.34u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | @BOS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +462 | 7.8% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -0.95u | DraftKings |