Look up a pitcher
Bets
38
14W · 24L
Win Rate
36.8%
35.8% break-even (+179)
ROI
+28.76%
profit / wager
P&L
+34.20u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.62
Ks · n=10 predictions
Bias
+0.42
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0010 · 4 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-15L
Win Rate
25%▼ 25pp
+166 avg
MAE
1.31▼ 0.61
P&L
-32.09u▼ 98.39u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER38 bets
Record
14W-24L
Win Rate
37%
+179 avg
P&L
+34.20u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.2, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 27% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | ATH | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -275 | 8.6% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.17u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | ATH | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -130 | 10.1% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.78u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -250 | 18.4% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +2.58u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -115 | 23.5% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +4.39u | Bovada |
| 7/28/26 | @ATH | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -137 | 18.4% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +3.18u | BetRivers |
| 7/8/26 | @CWS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -200 | 12.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.84u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | @COL | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -175 | 24.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +3.79u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | @COL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +114 | 34.8% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +7.45u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +274 | 39.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +14.63u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +620 | 22.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +16.08u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1400 | 14.8% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +22.28u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/17/26 | TOR | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -155 | 17.8% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +2.93u | BetMGM |
| 6/17/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +155 | 20.1% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +5.13u | BetMGM |
| 6/17/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +360 | 17.5% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +8.05u | Bovada |
| 8/8/26 | ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +170 | 5.2% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.82u | Fanatics |
| 8/8/26 | ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 10.2% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.32u | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +230 | 29.5% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -4.23u | Bovada |
| 8/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +525 | 25.8% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -3.07u | Bovada |
| 8/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1000 | 17.2% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.90u | BetRivers |
| 7/28/26 | @ATH | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +175 | 22.4% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -3.52u | Bovada |
| 7/28/26 | @ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 20.8% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.60u | Bovada |
| 7/28/26 | @ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +850 | 14.9% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.67u | BetRivers |
| 7/22/26 | BAL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -143 | 22.4% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -5.45u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/22/26 | BAL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +154 | 28.1% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -4.63u | FanDuel |
| 7/22/26 | BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 27.9% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -3.66u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | TB | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -155 | 17.3% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -4.42u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +145 | 20.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.47u | Fanatics |
| 7/17/26 | TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +330 | 20.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.63u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 16.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.81u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +108 | 14.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.76u | DraftKings |
| 7/8/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +240 | 15.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.15u | Bovada |
| 7/8/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +540 | 22.8% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.71u | FanDuel |
| 6/27/26 | NYY | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -175 | 9.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.65u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | NYY | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +120 | 9.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.70u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +260 | 8.7% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.20u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | NYY | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +550 | 6.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.75u | Bovada |
| 6/17/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +800 | 11.7% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.32u | DraftKings |
| 6/17/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1700 | 6.2% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -0.66u | DraftKings |