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Bets
9
2W · 6L
Win Rate
25.0%
43.3% break-even (+131)
ROI
-49.05%
profit / wager
P&L
-5.48u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.53
Ks · n=10 predictions
Bias
-0.14
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 26 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
2W-6L
Win Rate
25%
+131 avg
MAE
1.83▲ 0.60
P&L
-5.48u
UNDER3 bets
Record
2W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+100 avg
P&L
+2.81u
OVER6 bets
Record
0W-6L
Win Rate
0%
+143 avg
P&L
-8.29u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.3, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/24/26 | CHC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -120 | 8.1% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.48u | BetRivers |
| 6/15/26 | @ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +120 | 6.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.33u | Bovada |
| 6/21/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -159 | 7.2% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.87u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/21/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +140 | 9.5% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.64u | Bovada |
| 6/21/26 | @COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +275 | 7.9% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.08u | Bovada |
| 6/15/26 | @ATH | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -130 | 6.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.56u | Fanatics |
| 6/15/26 | @ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +165 | 7.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.25u | Fanatics |
| 6/15/26 | @ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 6.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.88u | Fanatics |
| 7/17/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -115 | 12.2% | 4.8 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | BetMGM |