Look up a pitcher
Bets
21
12W · 9L
Win Rate
57.1%
43.1% break-even (+132)
ROI
+38.74%
profit / wager
P&L
+18.63u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.34
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-1.13
under-predicting
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-3L
Win Rate
50%▼ 10pp
-108 avg
MAE
1.88▼ 1.13
P&L
-0.27u▼ 19.17u
UNDER10 bets
Record
5W-5L
Win Rate
50%
-109 avg
P&L
-2.64u
OVER11 bets
Record
7W-4L
Win Rate
64%
+187 avg
P&L
+21.27u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | WAS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +101 | 16.6% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +3.33u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -122 | 16.6% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +3.03u | BetRivers |
| 7/18/26 | NYM | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -145 | 8.9% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.50u | BetMGM |
| 7/4/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | -143 | 5.8% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 9 | WIN | +0.98u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/28/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -150 | 5.0% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +0.83u | BetRivers |
| 6/28/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +122 | 5.3% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.18u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -200 | 14.4% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +2.17u | Fanatics |
| 6/10/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +100 | 17.3% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +3.46u | Fanatics |
| 6/10/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +207 | 19.0% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +5.82u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | @TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +414 | 16.8% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +8.63u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -220 | 10.7% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.56u | Fanatics |
| 5/30/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -107 | 13.4% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.58u | DraftKings |
| 7/24/26 | NYY | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +100 | 18.5% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -3.69u | DraftKings |
| 7/18/26 | NYM | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +122 | 8.0% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 7 | LOSS | -1.46u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -114 | 13.9% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 11 | LOSS | -2.97u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +124 | 9.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 13 | LOSS | -1.76u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @WAS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -150 | 10.5% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 13 | LOSS | -2.62u | Fanatics |
| 6/10/26 | @TOR | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +830 | 12.7% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 8 | LOSS | -1.42u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | @TOR | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +1680 | 8.3% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 8 | LOSS | -0.88u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | @LAD | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +700 | 8.9% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -1.02u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | @LAD | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +1360 | 5.7% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -0.61u | DraftKings |