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Bets
16
4W · 11L
Win Rate
26.7%
49.7% break-even (+101)
ROI
-33.76%
profit / wager
P&L
-11.51u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.00
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
-1.10
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0004 · 36 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-7L
Win Rate
30%▲ 10pp
+105 avg
MAE
1.71▼ 0.61
P&L
-10.09u▼ 8.67u
UNDER13 bets
Record
4W-8L
Win Rate
33%
-110 avg
P&L
-8.25u
OVER3 bets
Record
0W-3L
Win Rate
0%
+152 avg
P&L
-3.26u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.9, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | NYM | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 11.1% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.28u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/24/26 | @TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +114 | 11.7% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +2.50u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/24/26 | @TB | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -160 | 13.7% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +2.22u | Bovada |
| 7/1/26 | TEX | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -113 | 19.1% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +3.59u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +119 | 16.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 8 | LOSS | -3.09u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -156 | 16.3% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 8 | LOSS | -4.17u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/24/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -135 | 5.7% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.33u | BetMGM |
| 7/24/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +158 | 6.5% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.07u | FanDuel |
| 7/24/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 6.6% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.86u | FanDuel |
| 7/19/26 | PIT | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +127 | 16.4% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.92u | DraftKings |
| 7/19/26 | PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -160 | 14.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -3.65u | BetMGM |
| 6/26/26 | SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -112 | 6.1% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 9 | LOSS | -1.29u | DraftKings |
| 6/20/26 | @HOU | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +106 | 6.2% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 9 | LOSS | -1.21u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 4.5 | ALT | +135 | 6.2% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -1.08u | BetRivers |
| 6/7/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -157 | 5.6% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -1.43u | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -103 | 6.9% | 5.2 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetRivers |