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Bets
7
2W · 1L
Win Rate
66.7%
53.0% break-even (-113)
ROI
-2.39%
profit / wager
P&L
-0.13u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.52
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
-1.39
under-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0511 · 19 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
-113 avg
MAE
2.82
P&L
-0.13u
UNDER3 bets
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
-113 avg
P&L
-0.13u
OVER4 bets
Record
0W-0L
Win Rate
0%
0 avg
P&L
+0.00u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.9, α=0.051) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/23/26 | @MIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -122 | 7.8% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +1.42u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | @PIT | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +110 | 5.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 1 | WIN | +1.22u | Bovada |
| 7/21/26 | @PHI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -129 | 12.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.77u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -154 | 14.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/9/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +145 | 18.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 8/9/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +325 | 19.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 17.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | — | — | FanDuel |