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Bets
7
1W · 3L
Win Rate
25.0%
49.7% break-even (+101)
ROI
-49.15%
profit / wager
P&L
-3.44u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.59
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.77
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0046 · 29 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
1W-3L
Win Rate
25%
+101 avg
MAE
1.42▼ 0.32
P&L
-3.44u
UNDER7 bets
Record
1W-3L
Win Rate
25%
+101 avg
P&L
-3.44u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.4, α=0.005) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/5/26 | DET | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +121 | 8.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.95u | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | CWS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +122 | 8.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.52u | FanDuel |
| 7/21/26 | CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -185 | 5.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.66u | BetMGM |
| 6/28/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +130 | 12.4% | 3.4 | 2–5 | 5 | LOSS | -2.20u | BetMGM |
| 8/9/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 8.5% | 4.7 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetMGM |
| 7/4/26 | DET | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 8.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 7/4/26 | DET | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -175 | 7.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetMGM |