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Bets
28
14W · 14L
Win Rate
50.0%
39.9% break-even (+150)
ROI
+18.72%
profit / wager
P&L
+10.48u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.73
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
-0.35
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
10W-10L
Win Rate
50%
+158 avg
MAE
2.32▲ 0.60
P&L
+8.97u▲ 7.46u
UNDER2 bets
Record
2W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-132 avg
P&L
+2.83u
OVER26 bets
Record
12W-14L
Win Rate
46%
+159 avg
P&L
+7.65u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.6, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 18% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | @STL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -275 | 14.4% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.96u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | KC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -150 | 9.9% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 8 | WIN | +1.65u | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +155 | 11.7% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 8 | WIN | +2.98u | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +350 | 10.8% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 8 | WIN | +4.85u | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +800 | 8.0% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 8 | WIN | +7.23u | BetRivers |
| 7/26/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -142 | 6.7% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.13u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 7.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +1.77u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +278 | 7.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +2.98u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | @SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -188 | 5.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +0.89u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +620 | 6.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +4.52u | DraftKings |
| 7/1/26 | MIA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +174 | 10.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.00u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | PIT | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +162 | 7.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +1.96u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -123 | 9.4% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.70u | DraftKings |
| 5/26/26 | @LAD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -125 | 15.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.78u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -110 | 20.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -4.38u | BetMGM |
| 8/8/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +215 | 23.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.41u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +480 | 19.7% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.38u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1150 | 14.2% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.55u | BetRivers |
| 7/26/26 | @MIL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -190 | 5.5% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.61u | BetMGM |
| 7/26/26 | @MIL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +115 | 5.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.08u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @LAD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -155 | 10.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.61u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +145 | 11.5% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.94u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +300 | 9.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.24u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +650 | 6.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.79u | Fanatics |
| 6/7/26 | MIL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -275 | 5.7% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.14u | Fanatics |
| 6/7/26 | MIL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +105 | 11.3% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.20u | Fliff |
| 6/7/26 | MIL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +310 | 15.9% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.10u | Fanatics |
| 6/7/26 | MIL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +850 | 13.3% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -1.49u | DraftKings |