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Bets
17
6W · 10L
Win Rate
37.5%
41.2% break-even (+143)
ROI
-21.47%
profit / wager
P&L
-4.64u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.66
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+0.40
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0004 · 40 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
4W-4L
Win Rate
50%▲ 36pp
+183 avg
MAE
2.58▲ 1.57
P&L
+2.54u▲ 11.77u
UNDER7 bets
Record
3W-3L
Win Rate
50%
-106 avg
P&L
-2.00u
OVER10 bets
Record
3W-7L
Win Rate
30%
+186 avg
P&L
-2.65u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.2, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 27% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -140 | 5.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +0.89u | FanDuel |
| 8/2/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +160 | 7.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.89u | Bovada |
| 7/22/26 | @KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +275 | 5.3% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.98u | BetRivers |
| 7/17/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -102 | 5.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +1.06u | FanDuel |
| 6/6/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -185 | 6.6% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.02u | BetMGM |
| 6/1/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +104 | 10.1% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.06u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +300 | 5.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.70u | Bovada |
| 8/2/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 7.0% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -0.91u | Bovada |
| 7/6/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +162 | 5.9% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.96u | FanDuel |
| 7/6/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 5.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.72u | FanDuel |
| 6/30/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -135 | 6.9% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.63u | Bovada |
| 6/30/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +164 | 8.8% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.42u | FanDuel |
| 6/30/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +350 | 8.4% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.07u | Bovada |
| 6/25/26 | ATH | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +125 | 17.0% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -3.06u | Bovada |
| 6/19/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -129 | 5.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -1.27u | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +128 | 10.2% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.81u | DraftKings |
| 6/18/26 | @ATL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -139 | 5.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |