Look up a pitcher
Bets
26
15W · 8L
Win Rate
65.2%
43.9% break-even (+128)
ROI
+30.44%
profit / wager
P&L
+12.28u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.99
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
+2.19
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
6W-5L
Win Rate
55%▼ 20pp
+127 avg
MAE
3.52▲ 0.26
P&L
-0.10u▼ 12.47u
UNDER3 bets
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
-114 avg
P&L
+0.61u
OVER23 bets
Record
13W-7L
Win Rate
65%
+135 avg
P&L
+11.67u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.7, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/26 | @TEX | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -150 | 6.0% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +1.00u | BetRivers |
| 8/3/26 | @TEX | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +150 | 8.5% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +2.12u | BetRivers |
| 8/3/26 | @TEX | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 8.4% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +3.54u | BetRivers |
| 7/24/26 | LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +140 | 7.8% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.86u | Bovada |
| 7/24/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -149 | 6.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.00u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/18/26 | @SEA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -175 | 9.9% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +1.55u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | ATL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -155 | 11.6% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.90u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +135 | 13.1% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.08u | BetMGM |
| 6/14/26 | CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -170 | 8.0% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.28u | Fanatics |
| 6/14/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +120 | 8.9% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.95u | FanDuel |
| 6/14/26 | CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +235 | 7.9% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.66u | Fanatics |
| 6/8/26 | WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -160 | 6.7% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.08u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +130 | 7.5% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.74u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +250 | 6.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.11u | BetMGM |
| 5/29/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +113 | 5.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.13u | DraftKings |
| 7/18/26 | @SEA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +115 | 10.8% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -2.02u | BetMGM |
| 7/18/26 | @SEA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +230 | 10.5% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -1.50u | BetMGM |
| 7/8/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -141 | 12.7% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -3.05u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/8/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +162 | 16.3% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.63u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 15.2% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.96u | FanDuel |
| 6/27/26 | ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +260 | 11.1% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.54u | BetMGM |
| 6/14/26 | CHC | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +467 | 6.3% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -0.76u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -138 | 9.5% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.25u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | DET | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -151 | 7.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +134 | 7.5% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +275 | 7.2% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |