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Bets
14
5W · 6L
Win Rate
45.5%
44.6% break-even (+124)
ROI
-3.19%
profit / wager
P&L
-0.81u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.48
Ks · n=8 predictions
Bias
+1.07
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-6L
Win Rate
45%
+124 avg
MAE
1.27
P&L
-0.81u
UNDER3 bets
Record
3W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+109 avg
P&L
+5.86u
OVER11 bets
Record
2W-6L
Win Rate
25%
+130 avg
P&L
-6.67u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.3, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/26 | LAD | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +110 | 9.2% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +1.93u | BetMGM |
| 7/29/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -200 | 14.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.11u | BetMGM |
| 7/29/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +111 | 17.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +3.70u | DraftKings |
| 7/18/26 | MIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +126 | 10.2% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.30u | DraftKings |
| 6/25/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -108 | 8.5% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.63u | BetRivers |
| 8/3/26 | LAD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -275 | 7.8% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.91u | BetMGM |
| 8/3/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -120 | 10.9% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.39u | BetMGM |
| 8/3/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +165 | 10.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.62u | BetRivers |
| 8/3/26 | LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +350 | 9.4% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.21u | BetRivers |
| 7/29/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +243 | 18.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -2.56u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +521 | 15.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.79u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -130 | 8.9% | 5.5 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Fanatics |
| 8/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +160 | 9.4% | 5.5 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Fanatics |
| 8/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 8.9% | 5.5 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Fanatics |