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Bets
31
14W · 17L
Win Rate
45.2%
37.2% break-even (+169)
ROI
+24.22%
profit / wager
P&L
+13.18u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.92
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-0.65
under-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0169 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
7W-5L
Win Rate
58%▲ 21pp
+161 avg
MAE
1.77
P&L
+16.48u▲ 19.78u
UNDER5 bets
Record
3W-2L
Win Rate
60%
-121 avg
P&L
+0.67u
OVER26 bets
Record
11W-15L
Win Rate
42%
+195 avg
P&L
+12.51u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.6, α=0.017) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -144 | 7.4% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.25u | DraftKings |
| 8/2/26 | @TOR | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -148 | 10.2% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.72u | DraftKings |
| 8/2/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +153 | 12.1% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.07u | DraftKings |
| 8/2/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +345 | 11.9% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +5.29u | DraftKings |
| 8/2/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 9.0% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +7.61u | FanDuel |
| 7/27/26 | CHC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -170 | 8.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.37u | Fanatics |
| 7/27/26 | CHC | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +126 | 9.4% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.12u | DraftKings |
| 6/30/26 | @ATL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -175 | 6.1% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +0.97u | Bovada |
| 6/30/26 | @ATL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +135 | 8.9% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +2.10u | Bovada |
| 6/30/26 | @ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +310 | 9.8% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +4.03u | FanDuel |
| 6/30/26 | @ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +700 | 8.1% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +6.48u | Bovada |
| 6/24/26 | ARI | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -200 | 17.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +2.58u | Fanatics |
| 6/24/26 | ARI | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -142 | 6.1% | 3.0 | 1–5 | 3 | WIN | +1.04u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @MIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -114 | 7.4% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.39u | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +125 | 5.1% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 7 | LOSS | -0.91u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +280 | 10.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.35u | FanDuel |
| 7/27/26 | CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +610 | 8.2% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.95u | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 8.8% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.11u | BetMGM |
| 7/11/26 | ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +483 | 5.2% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -0.62u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | @CHC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -179 | 5.6% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.55u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/5/26 | @CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +145 | 10.6% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.79u | Bovada |
| 7/5/26 | @CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +320 | 10.3% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.36u | Bovada |
| 7/5/26 | @CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 8.8% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.99u | Bovada |
| 6/24/26 | ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +128 | 23.5% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -4.18u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/24/26 | ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +291 | 22.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.06u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +680 | 18.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.09u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1500 | 11.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.25u | DraftKings |
| 6/18/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +140 | 9.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.64u | BetMGM |
| 6/18/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +290 | 8.2% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.10u | BetMGM |
| 6/18/26 | @KC | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -159 | 8.4% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.19u | BetRivers |
| 6/18/26 | @KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +600 | 5.8% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.68u | DraftKings |