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Bets
5
1W · 4L
Win Rate
20.0%
52.3% break-even (-109)
ROI
-46.99%
profit / wager
P&L
-6.80u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.09
Ks · n=4 predictions
Bias
-1.09
under-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0388 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%
-109 avg
MAE
1.09
P&L
-6.80u
UNDER5 bets
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%
-109 avg
P&L
-6.80u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.1, α=0.039) · 80% range 1-5 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/10/26 | PHI | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -169 | 17.9% | 3.0 | 1–5 | 4 | WIN | +2.85u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | @PHI | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +108 | 8.1% | 3.4 | 1–5 | 4 | LOSS | -1.56u | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | STL | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +125 | 16.3% | 3.2 | 1–5 | 5 | LOSS | -2.93u | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | @WAS | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -160 | 5.9% | 2.9 | 1–5 | 4 | LOSS | -1.55u | Fanatics |
| 6/10/26 | PHI | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +125 | 20.1% | 3.0 | 1–5 | 4 | LOSS | -3.61u | BetRivers |