Max Scherzer
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
11
MAE
1.83
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.03
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.43
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.90
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.95
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0388
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0539
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/27/26 | 4.12 | 7 | 2.88 |
| 9/23/26 | 4.79 | 7 | 2.21 |
| 9/16/26 | 4.28 | 3 | 1.28 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.08 | 3 | 1.08 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.05 | 2 | 2.05 |
| 8/30/26 | 3.76 | 10 | 6.24 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.00 | 4 | 0.00 |
| 8/8/26 | 3.41 | 4 | 0.59 |
| 8/2/26 | 3.20 | 5 | 1.80 |
| 7/27/26 | 2.89 | 4 | 1.11 |
| 6/10/26 | 3.13 | 4 | 0.87 |