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Bets
33
7W · 25L
Win Rate
21.9%
34.2% break-even (+193)
ROI
-37.02%
profit / wager
P&L
-23.74u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.06
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+0.71
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-16L
Win Rate
16%▼ 15pp
+208 avg
MAE
2.15▼ 0.22
P&L
-22.64u▼ 21.54u
UNDER2 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
-108 avg
P&L
-2.30u
OVER31 bets
Record
7W-23L
Win Rate
23%
+203 avg
P&L
-21.44u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.4, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 29% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/21/26 | WAS | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -215 | 14.4% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.11u | BetRivers |
| 7/21/26 | WAS | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +116 | 18.9% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +4.07u | BetRivers |
| 7/21/26 | WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +260 | 17.7% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +6.37u | BetRivers |
| 7/7/26 | @LAD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -125 | 12.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.20u | Fanatics |
| 7/7/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +180 | 12.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.55u | Fanatics |
| 6/21/26 | PIT | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -130 | 9.1% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.61u | BetRivers |
| 6/21/26 | PIT | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +162 | 7.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.96u | FanDuel |
| 8/3/26 | TB | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -180 | 18.2% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -5.10u | Fanatics |
| 8/3/26 | TB | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +136 | 22.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -3.91u | DraftKings |
| 8/3/26 | TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +330 | 21.9% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -2.86u | DraftKings |
| 8/3/26 | TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +790 | 16.6% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.87u | DraftKings |
| 8/3/26 | TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1820 | 10.1% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.06u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | @SD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -250 | 11.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -4.03u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | @SD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -105 | 14.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.94u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +210 | 13.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.01u | FanDuel |
| 7/28/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +460 | 10.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.29u | FanDuel |
| 7/28/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1000 | 6.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.73u | BetRivers |
| 7/21/26 | WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +600 | 13.8% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.61u | BetRivers |
| 7/21/26 | WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1300 | 8.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.90u | DraftKings |
| 7/12/26 | @SF | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -140 | 10.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -2.49u | FanDuel |
| 7/12/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +180 | 13.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -2.15u | FanDuel |
| 7/12/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 11.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.47u | Bovada |
| 7/12/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +800 | 7.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -0.79u | BetRivers |
| 7/7/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 10.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.34u | FanDuel |
| 7/7/26 | @LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +890 | 7.3% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.81u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | MIA | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -153 | 7.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.96u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | MIA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +147 | 8.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.42u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +340 | 8.5% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.09u | FanDuel |
| 7/2/26 | MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +760 | 6.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -0.69u | DraftKings |
| 6/21/26 | PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +360 | 6.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.81u | Bovada |
| 6/15/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +140 | 5.5% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -0.94u | Bovada |
| 6/15/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -163 | 5.2% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.36u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +135 | 15.6% | 4.1 | 2–6 | — | — | — | BetMGM |