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Bets
19
7W · 10L
Win Rate
41.2%
29.8% break-even (+236)
ROI
+38.58%
profit / wager
P&L
+12.18u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.61
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+0.57
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0479 · 33 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-3L
Win Rate
50%▲ 20pp
+300 avg
MAE
1.35▲ 0.12
P&L
+10.34u▲ 9.91u
UNDER2 bets
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+145 avg
P&L
+7.59u
OVER17 bets
Record
6W-10L
Win Rate
38%
+244 avg
P&L
+4.59u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.2, α=0.048) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/17/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +420 | 17.3% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +9.01u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | MIL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +230 | 7.0% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 6 | WIN | +2.32u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | MIL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +520 | 6.5% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 6 | WIN | +4.04u | FanDuel |
| 6/7/26 | CIN | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -110 | 9.7% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.86u | Fliff |
| 6/7/26 | CIN | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +200 | 10.6% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.17u | FanDuel |
| 6/7/26 | CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +145 | 31.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +7.59u | DraftKings |
| 5/26/26 | @MIL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -110 | 7.4% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 6 | WIN | +1.41u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +430 | 5.1% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -0.62u | FanDuel |
| 7/23/26 | ARI | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +144 | 15.4% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -2.61u | FanDuel |
| 7/23/26 | ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +310 | 13.6% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.79u | BetRivers |
| 7/1/26 | @ATL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +308 | 13.6% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.79u | DraftKings |
| 6/26/26 | MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +475 | 7.6% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 4 | LOSS | -0.92u | Bovada |
| 6/26/26 | MIA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +199 | 16.7% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.50u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +262 | 19.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.63u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @KC | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +120 | 13.3% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.44u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/7/26 | CIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +450 | 10.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.22u | FanDuel |
| 6/7/26 | CIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +850 | 6.1% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.68u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | COL | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +110 | 5.6% | 3.6 | 2–5 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 6/25/26 | ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +180 | 7.5% | 3.4 | 2–5 | — | VOID | — | BetMGM |