Michael Soroka
good tier · 5.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
10
MAE
2.15
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.02
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.59
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.43
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.88
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0299
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0425
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
46
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/27/26 | 4.67 | 4 | 0.67 |
| 9/22/26 | 4.57 | 9 | 4.43 |
| 9/15/26 | 4.10 | 6 | 1.90 |
| 8/10/26 | 3.60 | 4 | 0.40 |
| 6/19/26 | 4.73 | 0 | 4.73 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.08 | 7 | 1.92 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.54 | 6 | 1.46 |
| 6/2/26 | 5.24 | 6 | 0.76 |
| 5/27/26 | 5.13 | 3 | 2.13 |
| 5/22/26 | 5.12 | 2 | 3.12 |