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Bets
14
9W · 5L
Win Rate
64.3%
39.2% break-even (+155)
ROI
+79.53%
profit / wager
P&L
+20.52u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.18
Ks · n=10 predictions
Bias
-0.19
neutral
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0566 · 12 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-2L
Win Rate
60%▼ 7pp
+141 avg
MAE
1.07▼ 0.21
P&L
+7.39u▼ 5.74u
UNDER4 bets
Record
4W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-115 avg
P&L
+11.00u
OVER10 bets
Record
5W-5L
Win Rate
50%
+198 avg
P&L
+9.52u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.0, α=0.057) · 80% range 2-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | MIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -111 | 23.3% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 3 | WIN | +4.42u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/25/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -128 | 10.5% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.87u | DraftKings |
| 7/7/26 | @STL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -120 | 14.0% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +2.57u | FanDuel |
| 6/29/26 | CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -102 | 10.8% | 5.0 | 2–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.13u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @ATL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -165 | 8.4% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.34u | Fanatics |
| 6/21/26 | @ATL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +135 | 10.1% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +2.37u | Bovada |
| 6/21/26 | @ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +290 | 9.9% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.85u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +630 | 8.1% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +5.92u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | CLE | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -164 | 7.1% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 5 | WIN | +1.15u | DraftKings |
| 7/19/26 | MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +400 | 5.4% | 5.0 | 2–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.68u | FanDuel |
| 7/12/26 | @PIT | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 6.1% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.80u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | CLE | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 8.8% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 5 | LOSS | -1.56u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +269 | 8.7% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 5 | LOSS | -1.20u | DraftKings |
| 6/16/26 | CLE | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +573 | 7.4% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 5 | LOSS | -0.87u | DraftKings |