Look up a pitcher
Bets
2
0W · 2L
Win Rate
0.0%
43.4% break-even (+130)
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-2.05u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
4.10
Ks · n=1 predictions
Bias
+4.10
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0004 · 45 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
+130 avg
MAE
4.10
P&L
-2.05u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER2 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
+130 avg
P&L
-2.05u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.1, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/7/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -110 | 5.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.20u | Fanatics |
| 8/7/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +190 | 5.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -0.85u | FanDuel |