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Bets
8
3W · 4L
Win Rate
42.9%
39.0% break-even (+157)
ROI
+12.90%
profit / wager
P&L
+1.54u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.13
Ks · n=6 predictions
Bias
-0.50
neutral
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0703 · 20 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
3W-4L
Win Rate
43%
+157 avg
MAE
0.84
P&L
+1.54u
UNDER3 bets
Record
1W-1L
Win Rate
50%
+124 avg
P&L
+2.14u
OVER5 bets
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%
+172 avg
P&L
-0.60u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.0, α=0.070) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/29/26 | PHI | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +128 | 17.7% | 3.2 | 1–5 | 3 | WIN | +4.04u | BetRivers |
| 6/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -238 | 7.0% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.00u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -110 | 7.3% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.39u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +200 | 8.3% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.25u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +470 | 9.1% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.10u | FanDuel |
| 6/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +900 | 5.7% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.64u | Caesars |
| 6/21/26 | SF | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +121 | 10.4% | 3.4 | 1–6 | 6 | LOSS | -1.90u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | LAA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +110 | 14.8% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | — | — | BetRivers |