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Bets
11
3W · 7L
Win Rate
30.0%
34.3% break-even (+191)
ROI
-47.86%
profit / wager
P&L
-10.84u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.51
Ks · n=7 predictions
Bias
-0.16
neutral
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0214 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-7L
Win Rate
30%
+191 avg
MAE
1.81
P&L
-10.84u
UNDER3 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
-108 avg
P&L
-9.76u
OVER8 bets
Record
3W-5L
Win Rate
38%
+234 avg
P&L
-1.08u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.8, α=0.021) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +204 | 5.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.78u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | @CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +435 | 5.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.09u | DraftKings |
| 6/29/26 | @TOR | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -155 | 12.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.10u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | KC | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +134 | 25.0% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -4.37u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | KC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -157 | 21.0% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -5.39u | BetRivers |
| 7/4/26 | @ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +186 | 5.1% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.79u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | @ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +400 | 5.6% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.70u | Bovada |
| 6/29/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +165 | 18.6% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.98u | Bovada |
| 6/29/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +350 | 16.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.17u | Bovada |
| 6/29/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +710 | 12.4% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.42u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @PIT | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -156 | 11.1% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetOnline.ag |