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Bets
17
8W · 9L
Win Rate
47.1%
39.0% break-even (+156)
ROI
+42.65%
profit / wager
P&L
+9.83u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.54
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
+0.56
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
7W-6L
Win Rate
54%▲ 29pp
+167 avg
MAE
1.20▼ 0.75
P&L
+11.97u▲ 14.11u
UNDER4 bets
Record
2W-2L
Win Rate
50%
+126 avg
P&L
-0.18u
OVER13 bets
Record
6W-7L
Win Rate
46%
+167 avg
P&L
+10.02u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.5, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 29% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | CHC | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -154 | 6.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.09u | FanDuel |
| 8/8/26 | CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +148 | 7.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.86u | BetRivers |
| 7/7/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +116 | 5.3% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.16u | FanDuel |
| 7/1/26 | TB | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -134 | 9.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.72u | FanDuel |
| 7/1/26 | TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +178 | 11.7% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.24u | FanDuel |
| 7/1/26 | TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 10.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +5.01u | FanDuel |
| 7/1/26 | TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +800 | 5.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +5.19u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | TEX | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +110 | 9.1% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.92u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +340 | 7.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.96u | Bovada |
| 8/8/26 | CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 5.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.59u | BetRivers |
| 7/28/26 | @MIN | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -155 | 6.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.59u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | @MIN | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +148 | 7.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.21u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | @MIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +317 | 5.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.78u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | SF | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -124 | 9.7% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -2.16u | BetRivers |
| 6/19/26 | STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -147 | 7.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.94u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/19/26 | STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +140 | 6.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.03u | Fanatics |
| 5/30/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 3.5 | ALT | +260 | 7.9% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.09u | BetRivers |