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Bets
23
8W · 15L
Win Rate
34.8%
41.5% break-even (+141)
ROI
-6.83%
profit / wager
P&L
-3.01u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.07
Ks · n=15 predictions
Bias
-0.73
under-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0206 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-4L
Win Rate
43%▲ 12pp
-105 avg
MAE
1.97▼ 0.66
P&L
+2.83u▲ 8.67u
UNDER12 bets
Record
4W-8L
Win Rate
33%
-102 avg
P&L
-1.01u
OVER11 bets
Record
4W-7L
Win Rate
36%
+214 avg
P&L
-2.00u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.7, α=0.021) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +100 | 13.6% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +2.72u | BetMGM |
| 7/23/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 17.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.95u | BetMGM |
| 7/23/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -158 | 13.8% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.26u | DraftKings |
| 7/12/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +100 | 14.9% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.97u | BetMGM |
| 6/20/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -275 | 8.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.14u | Bovada |
| 6/14/26 | STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -157 | 7.1% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.16u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +137 | 9.6% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.28u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +293 | 10.7% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +4.20u | DraftKings |
| 8/8/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -140 | 5.1% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -1.23u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | KC | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -113 | 10.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -2.30u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | KC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +115 | 7.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -1.41u | BetMGM |
| 7/18/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +121 | 6.4% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.16u | DraftKings |
| 7/7/26 | CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -135 | 7.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -1.78u | DraftKings |
| 7/7/26 | CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 6.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -1.07u | BetMGM |
| 6/26/26 | COL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -119 | 11.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -2.49u | DraftKings |
| 6/26/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +140 | 8.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -1.47u | Bovada |
| 6/20/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -122 | 12.1% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.69u | BetRivers |
| 6/20/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +195 | 16.7% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.53u | Bovada |
| 6/20/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +425 | 16.1% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.98u | Bovada |
| 6/20/26 | @ARI | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +750 | 10.7% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.22u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | @ARI | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1360 | 6.5% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.70u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | STL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +595 | 8.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -1.02u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | STL | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1180 | 5.9% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -0.64u | DraftKings |