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Bets
23
14W · 7L
Win Rate
66.7%
40.0% break-even (+150)
ROI
+56.10%
profit / wager
P&L
+26.28u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.69
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
-1.38
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0008 · 7 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-1L
Win Rate
75%▲ 10pp
-100 avg
MAE
2.32
P&L
+8.17u▼ 9.94u
UNDER7 bets
Record
3W-2L
Win Rate
60%
+104 avg
P&L
+3.97u
OVER16 bets
Record
11W-5L
Win Rate
69%
+169 avg
P&L
+22.31u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.9, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -135 | 5.7% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +0.99u | Bovada |
| 7/28/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +111 | 15.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.35u | DraftKings |
| 7/23/26 | KC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +115 | 32.7% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +7.02u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/1/26 | @NYY | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -250 | 6.9% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +0.96u | BetMGM |
| 7/1/26 | @NYY | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -103 | 10.9% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.14u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/1/26 | @NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +185 | 8.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.45u | Fanatics |
| 7/1/26 | @NYY | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +400 | 8.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +3.98u | Bovada |
| 6/25/26 | HOU | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -170 | 10.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.73u | FanDuel |
| 6/25/26 | HOU | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +140 | 13.8% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +3.32u | FanDuel |
| 6/25/26 | HOU | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +310 | 12.8% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +5.24u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | CWS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -180 | 13.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.04u | Fanatics |
| 6/20/26 | CWS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +130 | 16.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +3.82u | FanDuel |
| 6/9/26 | MIN | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +159 | 6.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.62u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | MIN | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -142 | 5.9% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.01u | DraftKings |
| 7/17/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 16.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | LOSS | -3.19u | BetMGM |
| 7/8/26 | ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +124 | 23.3% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 9 | LOSS | -4.20u | DraftKings |
| 6/25/26 | HOU | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +680 | 9.4% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.08u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +280 | 15.5% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -2.10u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +580 | 11.4% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.34u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | CWS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1200 | 7.0% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.76u | Fanatics |
| 6/9/26 | MIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +354 | 5.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.71u | DraftKings |
| 8/9/26 | @SF | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 8.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/9/26 | @SF | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -156 | 9.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |