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Bets
13
9W · 4L
Win Rate
69.2%
42.9% break-even (+133)
ROI
+41.28%
profit / wager
P&L
+10.09u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.83
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
+0.50
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0006 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
9W-4L
Win Rate
69%
+133 avg
MAE
1.14▼ 0.70
P&L
+10.09u
UNDER4 bets
Record
4W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-102 avg
P&L
+6.23u
OVER9 bets
Record
5W-4L
Win Rate
56%
+153 avg
P&L
+3.87u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.7, α=0.001) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 7
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
5 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -215 | 9.5% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.40u | Fanatics |
| 8/8/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | -104 | 11.8% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.31u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | -123 | 5.5% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.00u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/20/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +124 | 11.5% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.56u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | BAL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -125 | 6.3% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 6 | WIN | +1.13u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -145 | 11.7% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 7 | WIN | +1.98u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +143 | 14.6% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 7 | WIN | +3.54u | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | LAA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -140 | 6.3% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +1.08u | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | ALT | +132 | 6.3% | 6.7 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +1.45u | BetRivers |
| 8/8/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +204 | 13.6% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -2.03u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @CWS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +287 | 14.5% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 7 | LOSS | -1.96u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @CWS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +576 | 12.2% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 7 | LOSS | -1.43u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | @CWS | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +1180 | 8.8% | 7.0 | 4–10 | 7 | LOSS | -0.95u | DraftKings |